In El Paso, Texas, Ice storms are a rare event. We have possibly one or two winter weather events a year. Because of this rarity, it is important to be extra careful in handling the storm. So, I was surprised to see a tweet this morning at 5AM:
“@abc7breaking FROM SISD: The roads are clear in SISD. The district will operate on its normal schedule today, Thursday, January 8, 2015.”
SISD is the Socorro (Texas) Independent School District. As I am writing, the ice storm is due to hit in the middle of rush-hour–four hours after the school district went outside and decided that the weather event didn’t happen. The radar, however, has different picture.
True, the storm could dissipate. And, also true, the school district could get all of the students to the schools safely before the storm hits and then the ice will be gone later.
But why risk it? Are two hours that important?
I first heard about this event a couple of days ago, when the National Weather Service posted a YouTube video regarding the potential storm. There was no surprise to this storm or its potential timing. Why, then, do we have leaders simply going outside and looking at the sky saying—”looks good to me” without looking at the science and taking precautions? This lack of trust in the forecast is amazing.
What is also amazing are those that go outside during a tornado outbreak saying “I don’t see a tornado” and ignore the sirens. Or the people insisting on staying in their homes when the forecasters and the government officials are urging evacuation.
Is the forecast sometimes wrong? Yes. Does the forecast sometimes change at the last minute? Yes. But, are these forecasts right a majority of the time—amazingly yes as well. I don’t believe the forecasters are simply throwing up warnings without doing the math—I see men and women that are trying their absolute best to get it right 100% of the time. They understand this is a city of 800,000 depending on their forecast to make decisions. Let’s give them credit they are due. If they think there is a strong enough potential—let the scientists do the science and leaders make decisions accordingly. We don’t need to needlessly risk lives on our own, very uneducated guesses.