For some of you, who have been reading this blog for awhile, you know that hurricanes fascinate me.
It has been awhile since I’ve been able to consistently track hurricanes because of life in general and the quiet Atlantic, for the most part. So, I look out and see Hurricane Earl–which I’ve watched grow from a Tropical Depression.
Tonight, I’m interested to see if it will go the path that the forecasters have predicted. The forecasters rarely show the other elements of wind sheer and jet stream that push these storms and steer them in the directions that they travel. However, I look at this forecast and wonder how in the world Earl will miss the East Coast. The forecast above shows that on Thursday the hurricane, headed at the time toward North Carolina with simply do a 45 degree turn away from land. The thought that I have is that this storm will hit the lower half of the jet stream and be carried out to sea.
I’m not alone in this question. My favorite hurricane site, FLHURRICANE.com, made a statement that I have observed as well–which was:
“The cone past 3 days tends to have large errors, so those in the Carolinas northward need to pay very close attention to this system.”
So who knows maybe it will turn, maybe it won’t. FLHURRICANE.com does go on to say that:
“Odds favor the system staying offshore of the US coastline, but it still would be close enough to possibly cause windy conditions along the coastline of the Carolinas.”
The National Hurricane Center forecasters are the best there are. I may question their long range forecasts–but, in the end, they will get it within the ball park and adjust as the conditions change. They always do an amazing job.
UPDATE: As I have been sitting down, finally after a day at work, I am listening to the Weather Channel give a pretty good description of the steering systems that are in place as this storm approaches the US. My concerns remain, however, about whether this storm will turn away from the US.
George Ellwanger says
Hi Chaplain,
I read your article about hurricane Earl and share your fascination with the storms.
I was wondering, is there ever an opportunity for civilians or former military to fly in one of the hurricane tracking aircraft? I used to watch them as a kid and just marvel at the possibility of flying through one of those storms. Now I have that as an item on my bucket list.
I am a former USAF Bandsman stationed at Pease AFB, New Hampshire (’85 – ’87) and Ramstein, Germany (’87 – ’89).