Earlier this week, I wrote a post about our most recent hurricane, Hurricane Earl. In that post, I made the statement;
“I look at this forecast and wonder how in the world Earl will miss the East Coast.”
So I decided to analyze this particularly interesting and puzzling storm to see what happens to a hurricane that move it around the ocean—without much technical explanation—because, frankly, I don’t know any.
I first began my study with this tracking image from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). It shows the predicted path of Hurricane Earl. This an all paths come from the mean of several different computer models used in forecasting hurricanes.
The next day, I began to notice that the storm remained in a Westerly direction—bringing effects to parts of Puerto Rico.
Turning to the Weather Channel the third day, I gained some insight on the factors effecting Hurricane Earl and it’s eventual movement to the North.
As the storm progressed, IÂ began to see the follow through on this system.
The picture below shows the information from the NHC Infrared picture from the GOES satellite. This picture is particularly interesting because it clearly shows the Cold Front extending from Texas to the Great Lakes that became a major factor in the prediction and movement of the storm to the North and East.
Then, this final picture shows what the water vapor imagery looked like as Hurricane Earl this morning as it began its movement North.
Many times, we can not see all of the science that our forecasters bring to the table. Through sources within the weather channel and through the internet, more of this information is becoming available to the novice—as myself.